Pass or run, predicted from what can be known before the ball moves — then checked against what actually happened, on seasons the model never trained on.
Each season is predicted by a model trained only on the seasons before it.
Neutral game state: 1st and 2nd down, neither team running away with it.
Bar length is the share of all plays that fall in each band.
When it says 70% pass, teams pass about 70% of the time.
How often each offense's play call was predicted correctly in 2025, against the public benchmark.
Every number on this page is out of sample. For each season, the model is trained only on earlier seasons, then asked to call every snap of the new one. Nothing about a play is used unless it is knowable before the snap.
Pass includes dropbacks that end in a sack or scramble. Kneel-downs, spikes and two-point tries are left out. The public benchmark is nflfastR's expected pass model, the standard open-source reference.
The live 2026 model runs on data available during the season; the historical model uses additional pre-snap data that is published after each season.